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EVENT POLY Burgos CF vs. Albacete Balompié - Exact Score $21,282 EVENT KALSHI 2030 U.S. Senate winner? EVENT MANIFOLD Daily Coinflip Ṁ838 EVENT SX Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets WHALE POLY $40,227 SELL Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? @ 98% EVENT LIMITLESS ETH Up or Down Hourly EVENT MYRIAD CS2 knife index next move: Pump to $220 or Dump to $110? $58 JACKPOT POLY GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? EVENT PREDICTIT Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by July 2028? $71 WHALE MANIFOLD Ṁ4,595 NO How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 elections? @ 1% EVENT OPINION What price will Bitcoin hit on November 9? $113 EVENT PROPHETX Ugo Blanchet at Buvaysar Gadamauri EVENT NOVIG French Open Winner 2027 EVENT POLY Getafe CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid - Exact Score $18,596 WHALE POLY $3,748 BUY Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? @ 81% EVENT KALSHI 2030 U.S. House winner? EVENT MANIFOLD Will bitcoin rise to 105k before crude oil falls below $80 per barrel? Ṁ528 JACKPOT POLY Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? EVENT SX Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams WHALE POLY $8,285 SELL Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? @ 92% EVENT LIMITLESS BTC Up or Down Hourly $75 EVENT MYRIAD SOL next move: Pump to $160 or Dump to $40? $78 EVENT PREDICTIT Will Jon Ossoff announce a run for President before 2028? $103 EVENT OPINION What price will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of November 9 2026? $7,562 WHALE SX $1,363 Over 231.0 Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 52% EVENT PROPHETX Adrien Gobat at Benjamin Kittay EVENT NOVIG Stanley Cup Winner JACKPOT POLY Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? EVENT POLY Olympique de Marseille vs. Le Mans FC - Exact Score $12,622 WHALE SX $4,937 Alex Michelsen Alex Michelsen vs Yannick Hanfmann @ 75% EVENT KALSHI Texas Senate winner? (2032) EVENT MANIFOLD How many House seats will Democrats win in the 2028 elections? Ṁ514 EVENT SX Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder EVENT LIMITLESS Solana Up or Down Hourly WHALE POLY $2,777 BUY Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? @ 88% EVENT MYRIAD Ethereum next move: Pump to $3K or Dump to $1.5K? $165 EVENT PREDICTIT Will Stephen A. Smith announce a run for president before 2028? JACKPOT POLY GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? EVENT OPINION Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 9 above …? $20,885 WHALE SX $509 Under 132.5 Seton Hall Pirates vs Charlotte 49ers @ 52% EVENT PROPHETX Francesco Forti at Massimo Giunta EVENT NOVIG Championship Winner EVENT POLY What price will Ethereum hit on November 9? $39,802 EVENT KALSHI Texas Senate winner? (2030) WHALE POLY $2,147 SELL New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? @ 98% EVENT MANIFOLD How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 elections? Ṁ1,329 EVENT SX L.A. Lakers vs Philadelphia 76ers JACKPOT POLY Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? EVENT LIMITLESS XRP Up or Down Hourly WHALE POLY $3,448 SELL Trump out as President before 2027? @ 98% EVENT MYRIAD How much Gold will it take to buy one Bitcoin next? $82 EVENT PREDICTIT Will Rubio and Vance both announce a run for President before 2028? $2 EVENT OPINION Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 9 above …? $13,008 EVENT PROPHETX Georgii Kravchenko at Johannus Monday WHALE POLY $4,749 SELL Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? @ 97% EVENT NOVIG Championship Winner WHALE MANIFOLD Ṁ2,000 NO Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026? @ 9% JACKPOT POLY Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? WHALE MANIFOLD Ṁ5,000 NO Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term? @ 1% WHALE MANIFOLD Ṁ10,000 NO Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term? @ 1%
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Blog

Newsletters and posts from the EventTracker desk — what actually happened across the prediction markets we track, measured from our own data. Newest first. Free to read.

  1. Newsletter November 7, 2026 Report 04 · November 7, 2026 · Ballots and the Market Scorecard How the markets priced the 2026 US midterms, and how they did. Kalshi and both Polymarket venues favored Democratic control of both chambers, which AP has called; the individual races in Texas, Iowa and South Carolina were the harder test. Tal Ayalon
  2. Newsletter November 2026 Issue 03 · November 2026 · Parlays and Ballots October in prediction markets: the seven exchanges that publish daily reports traded $3.84 billion a day, up 54% on September. Combos made up two thirds of Kalshi's volume, and more than half of Polymarket's big-ticket dollars went to elections in Brazil, Israel and the US. Tal Ayalon
  3. Post October 19, 2026 October 18 Sets New EventTracker Records October 18 set new highs in EventTracker’s available records: $5.43 billion of official daily notional volume across seven exchanges and 50,339 markets tracked during the day. Tal Ayalon
  4. Post October 15, 2026 Oct. 11th: A Prediction Markets Day to Remember On Sunday, October 11 the venues EventTracker follows recorded $5.39 billion in trading and our board carried 49,688 markets, both records. What drove it, and what EventTracker does. Tal Ayalon
  5. Newsletter October 2026 Issue 02 · October 2026 · The Uncertainty Tax What it actually costs to hold a one dollar contract on the venues we track. Most charge along the same curve, taking the most when the outcome is least certain, and they disagree completely about who pays: on every trade, only when you win, or not at all. Tal Ayalon
  6. Post September 24, 2026 Outcome.xyz and Pascal Grew Fast in 36 Days. Here Is What That Does and Does Not Mean. Pascal's daily volume rose about twentyfold on a book that barely changed, and Outcome.xyz rebuilt itself from a single market. Here is what that growth means, and how small both still are next to Kalshi and Polymarket. Tal Ayalon
  7. Newsletter September 2026 Issue 01 · July & August 2026 — The World Cup Hangover The first EventTracker newsletter, covering July and August 2026 across the venues we track: the World Cup hangover (daily volume fell 57% after the final), an August that cooled 34% while Kalshi grew 45%, and the new capacity that arrived while the market cooled. Rebecca Michaeli